Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
