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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.