Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”