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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles emit almost 5x more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a recent analysis.

Growing Gap Between Lab and Actual CO2 Output

Statistics shows that PHEVs release just 19% less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on research carried out by a advocacy group. This differs significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in emissions.

Analysts examined data from onboard energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand cars registered in Europe from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official estimates, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are rising, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead analyst involved in the report. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a significant issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as much as petrol vehicles.”

Key Factors Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked most of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles driven in battery mode relative to overall mileage. They determined that just 27% of travel was done in EV mode, whereas lab assumptions assumed over four-fifths.

Additionally, when operating in electric mode, pollution amounts were well above lab projections. This occurred because EV motors were not strong sufficient to function independently, leading to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly a third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Implications

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four large carmaker companies to escape over €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs could spend approximately €500 extra per year in operating expenses than is estimated under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly far from the truth,” stated a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting money. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than standard gas and diesel cars in terms of energy use, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Political Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid vehicles have lately been drawn again into policy discussions as automakers have lobbied the EU to relax CO₂ targets. A proposed ban on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced intense lobbying from the automotive industry and resistance from member states with large car industries.

Some senior officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a potential “flexibility” solution to include in the regulation.

One independent energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after a long period in which segments of the car industry argued there was insufficient data to properly evaluate real-world CO2 output.

“These findings demonstrate, without question, that the difference in lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is significantly greater than for gasoline or diesel vehicles,” they stated. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with extreme care and considering this evidence.”