Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
