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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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